South Florida COVID-19 Trajectory

Introduction

This is a special issue of the Miami Covid Project Trajectory Report including Palm Beach and Broward Counties with data including June 24th, 2020. This report will be updated at the authors’ convenience.

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in the South Florida counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. For phased reopening, the White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day.

For Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, this document shows the

• Full testing counts data,
• Count of positive and total COVID-19 tests since mid-March,
• Proportion of positive counts to total counts within the last two weeks,
• Proportion of positive counts to total counts since mid-March,
• Full COVID-19 hospitalization census data, and
• Counts of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 since the beginning of April

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Miami-Dade County

COVID-19 Testing Data

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.

Date	Positive	Negative	Percent	PropPositive
20-Mar	23	146	13.60947	13.6094675
21-Mar	53	419	11.22881	11.2288136
22-Mar	83	452	15.51402	15.5140187
23-Mar	44	241	15.43860	15.4385965
24-Mar	90	491	15.49053	15.4905336
25-Mar	154	1079	12.48986	12.4898621
26-Mar	178	749	19.20173	19.2017260
27-Mar	205	1066	16.12903	16.1290323
28-Mar	270	917	22.74642	22.7464195
29-Mar	362	1248	22.48447	22.4844720
30-Mar	278	963	22.40129	22.4012893
31-Mar	461	1613	22.22758	22.2275796
1-Apr	272	1569	14.77458	14.7745790
2-Apr	544	2413	18.40000	18.3970240
3-Apr	625	1878	25.00000	24.9700360
4-Apr	531	2521	17.40000	17.3984273
5-Apr	311	1260	19.80000	19.7963081
6-Apr	556	2309	19.40000	19.4066318
7-Apr	493	1990	19.90000	19.8550141
8-Apr	488	1113	30.50000	30.4809494
9-Apr	435	2636	14.20000	14.1647672
10-Apr	542	2505	17.80000	17.7879882
11-Apr	563	2732	17.10000	17.0864947
12-Apr	364	1614	18.40000	18.4024267
13-Apr	477	2267	17.40000	17.3833819
14-Apr	364	1663	18.00000	17.9575728
15-Apr	438	2392	15.50000	15.4770318
16-Apr	536	2767	16.20000	16.2276718
17-Apr	519	2901	15.20000	15.1754386
18-Apr	296	1509	16.40000	16.3988920
19-Apr	465	2690	14.70000	14.7385103
20-Apr	413	3232	11.30000	11.3305898
21-Apr	577	4230	12.00000	12.0033285
22-Apr	465	2701	14.70000	14.6873026
23-Apr	619	3647	14.50000	14.5100797
24-Apr	552	2852	16.20000	16.2162162
25-Apr	564	4136	12.00000	12.0000000
26-Apr	384	2576	13.00000	12.9729730
27-Apr	446	2789	13.80000	13.7867079
28-Apr	213	1333	13.80000	13.7774903
29-Apr	309	1704	15.40000	15.3502235
30-Apr	333	3724	8.20000	8.2080355
1-May	250	3616	6.50000	6.4666322
2-May	144	2183	6.20000	6.1882252
3-May	295	2896	9.20000	9.2447509
4-May	151	3900	3.70000	3.7274747
5-May	165	2231	6.90000	6.8864775
6-May	153	2296	6.20000	6.2474479
7-May	95	2091	4.30000	4.3458371
8-May	165	2623	5.90000	5.9182209
9-May	227	2209	9.30000	9.3185550
10-May	160	2551	5.90000	5.9018812
11-May	168	3426	4.70000	4.6744574
12-May	153	1662	8.40000	8.4297521
13-May	278	2216	11.10000	11.1467522
14-May	212	1722	11.00000	10.9617373
15-May	177	1898	8.50000	8.5301205
16-May	541	3026	15.20000	15.1668068
17-May	164	4187	3.80000	3.7692484
18-May	123	5305	2.30000	2.2660280
19-May	65	13644	0.50000	0.4741411
20-May	339	7261	4.50000	4.4605263
21-May	188	2643	6.60000	6.6407630
22-May	158	3143	4.80000	4.7864284
23-May	123	2491	4.70000	4.7054323
24-May	219	5545	3.80000	3.7994448
25-May	113	2819	3.90000	3.8540246
26-May	100	1786	5.30000	5.3022269
27-May	143	2693	5.00000	5.0423131
28-May	259	5673	4.40000	4.3661497
29-May	165	2454	6.30000	6.3001145
30-May	202	4104	4.70000	4.6911287
31-May	138	2921	4.50000	4.5112782
1-Jun	83	1042	7.40000	7.3777778
2-Jun	250	4639	5.10000	5.1135201
2-Jun	274	4952	5.20000	5.2430157
4-Jun	217	3909	5.30000	5.2593311
5-Jun	233	3111	7.00000	6.9677033
6-Jun	328	8882	3.60000	3.5613464
7-Jun	226	2674	7.80000	7.7931034
8-Jun	231	4255	5.10000	5.1493535
9-Jun	247	3249	7.10000	7.0652174
10-Jun	295	4861	5.70000	5.7214895
11-Jun	255	3967	6.00000	6.0397916
12-Jun	560	4866	10.30000	10.3206782
13-Jun	292	9250	3.10000	3.0601551
14-Jun	265	2724	8.90000	8.8658414
15-Jun	519	5222	9.00000	9.0402369
16-Jun	489	3337	12.80000	12.7809723
17-Jun	560	4422	11.20000	11.2404657
18-Jun	551	4415	11.10000	11.0954491
19-Jun	618	4668	11.70000	11.6912599
20-Jun	906	5877	13.40000	13.3569217
21-Jun	429	4374	8.90000	8.9319176
22-Jun	674	3030	18.20000	18.1965443
23-Jun	917	3847	19.20000	19.2485306
24-Jun	879	7708	10.20000	10.2364039
25-Jun	1514	9088	14.30000	14.2803245
26-Jun	1357	8287	14.10000	14.0709249
27-Jun	2137	9869	17.80000	17.7994336
28-Jun	1532	6702	18.60000	18.6057809
29-Jun	1596	7377	17.80000	17.7866934
30-Jun	1139	5107	18.20000	18.2356708
1-Jul	2306	9507	19.50000	19.5208668
2-Jul	2052	7764	20.90000	20.9046455
3-Jul	2447	10491	18.90000	18.9132787
4-Jul	2258	8862	20.30000	20.3057554

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has doubled from about 2,000 in early April to just under 10,000 in late June. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 451 new additional tests each day, per day in Miami-Dade County. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

There was a general decrease in the number of new positive test results from early April until around mid May when Miami-Dade reopened. Afterwards, this trend flattened out and then increased. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 125 new additional positive cases each day, per day in Miami-Dade County. A high of 2447 for new positive cases was obtained on July 3rd.

Proportion of Positive Cases within Past Two Weeks

During the 14-day period from 20 June to 04 July, there was a significant increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 cases reported in Miami-Dade County. Over this period, there was an average increase of 0.6 percentage points per day for new positive cases. This increase was even greater during the last week. Given a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive tests obtained is the key metric for examining COVID-19 trajectory. The percentage of positive test results obtained has exceeded the 5% positive threshold recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for reopening.

Proportion of Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

Overall, the proportion of positive test results out of all tests decreased significantly from just under 20% in early April to the proportion of about 5% at the end of May. This is function of test availability and the population being tested. Overall, since the county reopened, the proportion of positive tests is now increasing significantly over time, returning to the current proportion of approximately 20%. Given a flat or increasing number of tests performed, an increase in the proportion of positive tests obtained points to evidence of increased COVID-19 community spread in Miami-Dade county

COVID-19 Hospitalization Data

Full Data

The data below is COVID-19 hospital census data for Miami-Dade County for all dates with available data since April 2.These columns are: the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (Hospitalized), the number of patients in intensive care with COVID-19 (ICU), the number of patients in intensive care with COVID-19 who are also on ventilators (Ventilated), the number of patients positive for COVID-19 that were admitted the previous day (AdmitPrevDay), the number of patients recovered from COVID-19 that were discharged the previous day (DischPrevDay), and the net admission of patients positive for COVID-19 the previous day (DeltaAdmit; a negative value means more recovered patients were discharged than sick patients admitted).

Date	County	Hospitalized	ICU	Ventilated	AdmitPrevDay	DischPrevDay	DeltaAdmit
2020-04-02	MIAMI-DADE	320	130	116	NA	NA	NA
2020-04-03	MIAMI-DADE	346	133	116	111	33	78
2020-04-04	MIAMI-DADE	416	133	112	59	37	22
2020-04-05	MIAMI-DADE	533	188	146	108	19	89
2020-04-06	MIAMI-DADE	516	178	151	89	21	68
2020-04-07	MIAMI-DADE	591	199	167	76	28	48
2020-04-08	MIAMI-DADE	636	215	166	107	32	75
2020-04-09	MIAMI-DADE	634	232	170	99	61	38
2020-04-10	MIAMI-DADE	681	245	172	79	37	42
2020-04-10	MIAMI-DADE	676	251	183	73	36	37
2020-04-11	MIAMI-DADE	671	238	177	99	64	35
2020-04-12	MIAMI-DADE	672	243	192	80	59	21
2020-04-12	MIAMI-DADE	714	245	183	60	61	-1
2020-04-13	MIAMI-DADE	653	247	184	74	47	27
2020-04-13	MIAMI-DADE	695	251	184	80	48	32
2020-04-14	MIAMI-DADE	653	204	146	69	41	28
2020-04-14	MIAMI-DADE	712	249	174	86	66	20
2020-04-15	MIAMI-DADE	693	234	169	84	76	8
2020-04-16	MIAMI-DADE	714	223	176	77	84	-7
2020-04-16	MIAMI-DADE	736	226	176	74	111	-37
2020-04-17	MIAMI-DADE	706	213	172	83	107	-24
2020-04-17	MIAMI-DADE	797	285	170	74	88	-14
2020-04-18	MIAMI-DADE	697	221	170	101	137	-36
2020-04-18	MIAMI-DADE	697	219	170	93	138	-45
2020-04-19	MIAMI-DADE	730	223	170	71	105	-34
2020-04-20	MIAMI-DADE	727	210	167	58	64	-6
2020-04-21	MIAMI-DADE	759	205	155	92	81	11
2020-04-22	MIAMI-DADE	743	196	148	72	88	-16
2020-04-22	MIAMI-DADE	722	194	139	71	121	-50
2020-04-23	MIAMI-DADE	706	186	129	91	62	29
2020-04-23	MIAMI-DADE	728	192	139	82	65	17
2020-04-24	MIAMI-DADE	694	173	125	86	66	20
2020-04-25	MIAMI-DADE	699	182	133	85	50	35
2020-04-25	MIAMI-DADE	705	178	133	84	51	33
2020-04-26	MIAMI-DADE	752	176	115	95	34	61
2020-04-26	MIAMI-DADE	747	177	116	79	32	47
2020-04-27	MIAMI-DADE	728	163	114	52	23	29
2020-04-27	MIAMI-DADE	725	162	115	50	26	24
2020-04-28	MIAMI-DADE	763	204	128	53	43	10
2020-04-28	MIAMI-DADE	776	203	127	71	52	19
2020-04-29	MIAMI-DADE	746	204	119	74	48	26
2020-04-29	MIAMI-DADE	747	196	120	75	44	31
2020-04-30	MIAMI-DADE	735	167	108	64	61	3
2020-04-30	MIAMI-DADE	735	168	108	58	63	-5
2020-05-01	MIAMI-DADE	733	177	110	69	76	-7
2020-05-01	MIAMI-DADE	724	171	110	79	77	2
2020-05-02	MIAMI-DADE	715	168	107	86	72	14
2020-05-03	MIAMI-DADE	707	181	103	68	134	-66
2020-05-03	MIAMI-DADE	697	179	102	56	132	-76
2020-05-04	MIAMI-DADE	702	170	105	46	29	17
2020-05-04	MIAMI-DADE	692	167	103	47	33	14
2020-05-05	MIAMI-DADE	674	157	84	68	76	-8
2020-05-05	MIAMI-DADE	677	156	84	67	74	-7
2020-05-06	MIAMI-DADE	660	142	80	80	68	12
2020-05-06	MIAMI-DADE	658	142	80	84	72	12
2020-05-07	MIAMI-DADE	661	137	75	71	65	6
2020-05-07	MIAMI-DADE	658	136	75	71	65	6
2020-05-08	MIAMI-DADE	643	130	78	68	64	4
2020-05-09	MIAMI-DADE	817	128	79	67	185	-118
2020-05-09	MIAMI-DADE	649	129	79	71	180	-109
2020-05-10	MIAMI-DADE	662	133	77	81	35	46
2020-05-10	MIAMI-DADE	667	127	77	64	31	33
2020-05-11	MIAMI-DADE	695	121	74	58	23	35
2020-05-11	MIAMI-DADE	695	121	74	58	23	35
2020-05-12	MIAMI-DADE	698	123	82	74	49	25
2020-05-12	MIAMI-DADE	634	111	73	76	50	26
2020-05-13	MIAMI-DADE	679	112	68	50	59	-9
2020-05-13	MIAMI-DADE	716	119	66	54	55	-1
2020-05-14	MIAMI-DADE	694	118	62	54	74	-20
2020-05-14	MIAMI-DADE	694	117	61	47	76	-29
2020-05-15	MIAMI-DADE	697	110	59	67	76	-9
2020-05-15	MIAMI-DADE	697	111	59	60	64	-4
2020-05-16	MIAMI-DADE	714	119	61	62	81	-19
2020-05-16	MIAMI-DADE	747	125	62	74	83	-9
2020-05-18	MIAMI-DADE	778	128	82	23	14	9
2020-05-19	MIAMI-DADE	742	122	50	52	44	8
2020-05-23	MIAMI-DADE	772	114	59	70	68	2
2020-05-26	MIAMI-DADE	792	106	67	67	110	-43
2020-05-27	MIAMI-DADE	768	106	61	42	46	-4
2020-05-28	MIAMI-DADE	740	103	56	59	98	-39
2020-05-29	MIAMI-DADE	729	92	55	48	74	-26
2020-05-31	MIAMI-DADE	716	96	53	71	49	22
2020-06-01	MIAMI-DADE	663	95	75	39	45	-6
2020-06-02	MIAMI-DADE	714	96	54	61	59	2
2020-06-03	MIAMI-DADE	699	98	56	58	109	-51
2020-06-04	MIAMI-DADE	643	98	NA	60	81	-21
2020-06-05	MIAMI-DADE	717	114	56	82	86	-4
2020-06-08	MIAMI-DADE	723	108	60	56	22	34
2020-06-10	MIAMI-DADE	724	93	58	60	54	6
2020-06-11	MIAMI-DADE	691	98	58	65	67	-2
2020-06-12	MIAMI-DADE	686	99	59	54	70	-16
2020-06-12	MIAMI-DADE	681	103	59	58	69	-11
2020-06-15	MIAMI-DADE	738	126	66	95	45	50
2020-06-16	MIAMI-DADE	754	135	64	99	76	23
2020-06-17	MIAMI-DADE	761	131	67	101	87	14
2020-06-18	MIAMI-DADE	761	138	64	101	249	-148
2020-06-19	MIAMI-DADE	758	131	71	115	150	-35
2020-06-20	MIAMI-DADE	794	131	74	103	92	11
2020-06-22	MIAMI-DADE	900	165	77	110	42	68
2020-06-23	MIAMI-DADE	932	163	78	154	94	60
2020-06-24	MIAMI-DADE	981	185	83	164	121	43
2020-06-25	MIAMI-DADE	955	182	87	160	140	20
2020-06-26	MIAMI-DADE	1006	195	88	187	142	45
2020-06-27	MIAMI-DADE	1004	206	91	160	136	24
2020-06-27	MIAMI-DADE	1004	206	90	162	130	32
2020-06-30	MIAMI-DADE	1219	282	105	174	120	54

Hospital COVID-19 Census Trajectory

We now show a census plot of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and those in ICU on ventilators (shown on a log scale) for Miami-Dade County. Overall, since mid-April, the number of COVID-19 positive patients in Miami-Dade County hospitals remained constant at around 700 people in hospitals until mid June. The COVID-19 ICU census has decreased from its reported peak of 285 on April 17th to around 100 as of June 6th. Overall, the number of COVID-19 patients on ventilators has decreased significantly from its highest point of 192 ventilated on April 22nd to around 60 on June 6th. However, the observed decreasing trends for ICU census and ventilation census have reversed over the past three weeks and begun to increase for both ICU census and ventilation census, respectively. Additionally, county hospitalizations have begun to increase as well. On June 30th, 1219 COVID-19 positive patients were hospitalized, a new high during the period analyzed

We also show the proportion of patients hospitalized who are in the ICU and the proportion of those patients in the ICU who are ventilated.

Overall, the percentage of COVID-19 hospitalized patients requiring intensive care has decreased from over 40% in early April to around 13% in mid May. In the past three weeks, this trend has reversed and the percentage of patients in the ICU on ventilation has begun to increase to approximately 25%. Additionally, the percentage of patients in the ICU on ventilation has decreased from approximately 85% in early April to the current percentage of under 50%. This decrease has continued over the past three weeks.

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Broward County

COVID-19 Testing Data

Full Data

Date	Positive	Negative	PropPositive
20-Mar	32	749	4.0973111
21-Mar	36	277	11.5015974
22-Mar	53	351	13.1188119
23-Mar	46	245	15.8075601
24-Mar	49	238	17.0731707
25-Mar	100	1413	6.6093853
26-Mar	93	859	9.7689076
27-Mar	126	1044	10.7692308
28-Mar	189	1591	10.6179775
29-Mar	18	229	7.2874494
30-Mar	299	2553	10.4838710
31-Mar	82	672	10.8753316
1-Apr	13	193	6.3106796
2-Apr	249	935	21.0304054
3-Apr	84	1271	6.1992620
4-Apr	227	1028	18.0876494
5-Apr	94	1204	7.2419106
6-Apr	181	1029	14.9586777
7-Apr	163	1052	13.4156379
9-Apr	122	1262	8.8150289
10-Apr	199	944	17.4103237
11-Apr	155	805	16.1458333
12-Apr	150	1008	12.9533679
13-Apr	299	1574	15.9636946
14-Apr	117	789	12.9139073
15-Apr	186	1135	14.0802422
16-Apr	254	2340	9.7918273
17-Apr	183	1208	13.1560029
18-Apr	217	1213	15.1748252
19-Apr	223	1362	14.0694006
20-Apr	181	1060	14.5850121
21-Apr	191	1193	13.8005780
22-Apr	166	1456	10.2342787
23-Apr	312	2851	9.8640531
24-Apr	247	1537	13.8452915
25-Apr	NA	NA	NA
26-Apr	NA	NA	NA
27-Apr	NA	NA	NA
28-Apr	NA	NA	NA
29-Apr	66	787	7.7373974
30-Apr	183	3640	4.7868166
1-May	107	1839	5.4984584
2-May	60	1122	5.0761421
3-May	66	785	7.7555817
4-May	108	2090	4.9135578
5-May	63	1805	3.3725910
6-May	80	1458	5.2015605
7-May	47	5356	0.8698871
8-May	49	1470	3.2258065
9-May	89	654	11.9784657
10-May	22	2180	0.9990917
11-May	68	1744	3.7527594
12-May	61	1332	4.3790380
13-May	52	2155	2.3561396
14-May	69	1150	5.6603774
15-May	41	499	7.5925926
16-May	81	1344	5.6842105
17-May	78	1956	3.8348083
18-May	47	2476	1.8628617
19-May	45	6470	0.6907137
20-May	109	4259	2.4954212
21-May	64	3411	1.8417266
22-May	72	3400	2.0737327
23-May	41	1168	3.3912324
24-May	78	3557	2.1458047
25-May	39	1608	2.3679417
26-May	36	994	3.4951456
27-May	38	1960	1.9019019
28-May	101	4316	2.2866199
29-May	82	1451	5.3489889
30-May	70	2698	2.5289017
31-May	72	3060	2.2988506
1-Jun	51	762	6.2730627
2-Jun	83	2190	3.6515618
3-Jun	101	3850	2.5563149
4-Jun	104	4207	2.4124333
5-Jun	97	2830	3.3139734
6-Jun	146	4808	2.9471134
7-Jun	115	2425	4.5275591
8-Jun	135	3257	3.9799528
9-Jun	108	1538	6.5613609
10-Jun	151	2434	5.8413926
11-Jun	226	4334	4.9561404
12-Jun	206	3358	5.7800224
13-Jun	108	3921	2.6805659
14-Jun	129	2423	5.0548589
15-Jun	393	4798	7.5707956
16-Jun	281	2598	9.7603334
17-Jun	272	3460	7.2883173
18-Jun	271	2755	8.9557171
19-Jun	342	3176	9.7214326
20-Jun	504	4760	9.5744681
21-Jun	134	2071	6.0770975
22-Jun	459	4037	10.2090747
23-Jun	443	3675	10.7576493
24-Jun	372	5429	6.4126875
25-Jun	729	5655	11.4191729
26-Jun	708	6219	10.2208748
27-Jun	554	4733	10.4785322
28-Jun	441	3246	11.9609439
29-Jun	594	3796	13.5307517
30-Jun	531	3070	14.7459039
1-Jul	948	6053	13.5409227
2-Jul	1108	5724	16.2177986
3-Jul	1353	8274	14.0542225
4-Jul	1670	8432	16.5313799

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 1000 in early April to approximately 5000 in late June. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 314 new additional tests each day in Broward County. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

There was a general decrease in the number of new positive test results from early April until around May 11th. Afterwards, this trend flattened out and then increased. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 74 new additional positive cases each day, per day in Broward County.

Proportion of Positive Cases within Past Two Weeks

During the 14-day period from 20 June to 04 July, there was a significant increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 cases reported in Broward County. Over this period, there was an average increase of 0.6 percentage points per day for new positive cases.

Proportion of Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

Overall, the proportion of positive test results out of all tests decreased significantly from over 15% in April to the proportion of about 4% at the end of May. From there, there has been an increase to the currently proportion of over 15%. This measure is a function of test availability and the population being tested. Overall, since the county reopened, the proportion of positive tests is now increasing significantly over time. Over the past two weeks, the proportion of positive cases obtained has increased by approximately 0.6 % each day for Broward County.

COVID-19 Hospitalization Data

Full Data

Date	County	Hospitalized	ICU	Ventilated	AdmitPrevDay	DischPrevDay	DeltaAdmit
2020-04-02	BROWARD	204	71	56	NA	NA	NA
2020-04-03	BROWARD	250	87	70	143	49	94
2020-04-04	BROWARD	298	98	80	41	18	23
2020-04-05	BROWARD	341	96	92	83	66	17
2020-04-06	BROWARD	389	122	110	71	72	-1
2020-04-07	BROWARD	413	128	113	65	81	-16
2020-04-08	BROWARD	391	135	119	62	108	-46
2020-04-09	BROWARD	376	135	106	55	54	1
2020-04-10	BROWARD	374	136	114	83	84	-1
2020-04-10	BROWARD	380	148	120	84	72	12
2020-04-11	BROWARD	370	140	115	71	80	-9
2020-04-12	BROWARD	400	145	120	66	60	6
2020-04-12	BROWARD	398	152	121	77	64	13
2020-04-13	BROWARD	326	128	99	72	59	13
2020-04-13	BROWARD	406	146	116	84	62	22
2020-04-14	BROWARD	400	144	116	89	60	29
2020-04-14	BROWARD	398	140	108	107	65	42
2020-04-15	BROWARD	387	144	112	142	136	6
2020-04-16	BROWARD	396	147	114	136	111	25
2020-04-16	BROWARD	378	139	106	125	55	70
2020-04-17	BROWARD	376	135	106	122	63	59
2020-04-17	BROWARD	365	135	104	70	44	26
2020-04-18	BROWARD	310	107	82	68	118	-50
2020-04-18	BROWARD	381	125	102	64	48	16
2020-04-19	BROWARD	378	127	100	53	43	10
2020-04-20	BROWARD	371	123	105	60	39	21
2020-04-21	BROWARD	330	107	88	90	66	24
2020-04-22	BROWARD	360	116	97	62	57	5
2020-04-22	BROWARD	356	117	95	52	40	12
2020-04-23	BROWARD	364	119	82	47	33	14
2020-04-23	BROWARD	363	121	84	38	40	-2
2020-04-24	BROWARD	372	117	102	46	38	8
2020-04-25	BROWARD	347	116	103	67	57	10
2020-04-25	BROWARD	343	112	85	77	65	12
2020-04-26	BROWARD	341	110	84	74	50	24
2020-04-26	BROWARD	343	113	84	63	48	15
2020-04-27	BROWARD	335	105	82	35	39	-4
2020-04-27	BROWARD	336	107	80	35	40	-5
2020-04-28	BROWARD	324	99	74	69	59	10
2020-04-28	BROWARD	324	99	74	69	59	10
2020-04-29	BROWARD	319	101	77	59	55	4
2020-04-29	BROWARD	319	101	77	59	55	4
2020-04-30	BROWARD	311	92	77	47	50	-3
2020-04-30	BROWARD	312	93	77	47	50	-3
2020-05-01	BROWARD	309	91	69	65	62	3
2020-05-01	BROWARD	310	91	69	65	62	3
2020-05-02	BROWARD	308	91	72	55	62	-7
2020-05-03	BROWARD	301	89	67	31	30	1
2020-05-03	BROWARD	305	89	69	47	40	7
2020-05-04	BROWARD	271	74	53	34	43	-9
2020-05-04	BROWARD	270	75	53	33	45	-12
2020-05-05	BROWARD	254	71	50	33	44	-11
2020-05-05	BROWARD	259	75	50	33	44	-11
2020-05-06	BROWARD	249	65	52	44	31	13
2020-05-06	BROWARD	249	65	52	50	31	19
2020-05-07	BROWARD	246	61	44	43	21	22
2020-05-07	BROWARD	246	61	44	43	21	22
2020-05-08	BROWARD	247	68	42	40	20	20
2020-05-09	BROWARD	241	62	41	36	25	11
2020-05-09	BROWARD	241	63	42	34	21	13
2020-05-10	BROWARD	253	63	41	41	18	23
2020-05-10	BROWARD	253	63	41	41	18	23
2020-05-11	BROWARD	283	59	39	50	6	44
2020-05-11	BROWARD	283	59	39	50	6	44
2020-05-12	BROWARD	279	61	41	30	20	10
2020-05-12	BROWARD	279	61	41	30	20	10
2020-05-13	BROWARD	246	50	24	41	16	25
2020-05-13	BROWARD	286	57	34	42	15	27
2020-05-14	BROWARD	300	57	36	41	26	15
2020-05-14	BROWARD	300	57	36	44	26	18
2020-05-15	BROWARD	281	45	35	25	19	6
2020-05-15	BROWARD	281	45	35	25	19	6
2020-05-16	BROWARD	277	41	36	22	25	-3
2020-05-16	BROWARD	270	43	38	23	25	-2
2020-05-18	BROWARD	270	46	42	22	17	5
2020-05-19	BROWARD	277	48	40	28	17	11
2020-05-23	BROWARD	228	48	41	23	17	6
2020-05-26	BROWARD	230	47	37	25	18	7
2020-05-27	BROWARD	228	49	37	27	22	5
2020-05-28	BROWARD	213	54	41	18	25	-7
2020-05-29	BROWARD	208	50	45	21	20	1
2020-05-31	BROWARD	187	49	34	20	16	4
2020-06-01	BROWARD	198	51	34	12	23	-11
2020-06-02	BROWARD	195	53	33	32	33	-1
2020-06-03	BROWARD	187	50	32	30	39	-9
2020-06-04	BROWARD	167	52	32	20	26	-6
2020-06-05	BROWARD	182	50	31	23	16	7
2020-06-08	BROWARD	185	50	29	26	12	14
2020-06-10	BROWARD	169	46	29	26	23	3
2020-06-11	BROWARD	204	50	30	31	23	8
2020-06-12	BROWARD	215	48	31	31	25	6
2020-06-12	BROWARD	214	48	31	28	25	3
2020-06-15	BROWARD	222	53	27	30	16	14
2020-06-16	BROWARD	235	61	29	39	29	10
2020-06-17	BROWARD	243	54	27	40	36	4
2020-06-18	BROWARD	257	56	26	44	32	12
2020-06-19	BROWARD	289	68	26	53	35	18
2020-06-20	BROWARD	297	71	30	51	24	27
2020-06-23	BROWARD	302	47	25	49	33	16
2020-06-24	BROWARD	391	68	34	66	59	7
2020-06-25	BROWARD	429	74	26	79	33	46
2020-06-26	BROWARD	451	92	43	73	45	28
2020-06-27	BROWARD	472	97	38	82	51	31
2020-06-27	BROWARD	472	97	38	82	51	31
2020-06-30	BROWARD	602	113	49	105	65	40

Hospital COVID-19 Census Trajectory

We now show a census plot of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and those in ICU on ventilators (shown on a log scale) for Broward County. Overall, in Broward County, hospitalizations and ICU census trended downwards until approximately the first week of June. Subsequently, these trends reversed and now trend upwards. The trend for ventilation has increased over approximately the past two weeks. The COVID-19 ICU census had decreased from its reported peak of 147 on April 16th to a minimum of 41 on May 16th; currently, it has increased back to 113. The observed decreasing trends for ICU census has reversed over the past month and began to increase. Overall, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICU on ventilators has decreased significantly from its highest point of 121 ventilated on April 12th to a minimum of 23 on May 13th; currently, there are 49 patients on ventilators in ICU. Additionally, county hospitalizations have begun to increase over the past three weeks.

We also show the proportion of patients hospitalized who are in the ICU and the proportion of those patients in the ICU who are ventilated.

Overall, the percentage of COVID-19 hospitalized patients needing intensive care has decreased from over 35% in early April, to the current rate of below 25%. In addition, the percentage of COVID-19 ICU patients requiring ventilation decreased from over approximately 85% in early April, to under 40% currently. This decreasing trend has remained stable over the last three weeks.

---

Palm Beach County

COVID-19 Testing Data

Full Data

Date	Positive	Negative	PropPositive
20-Mar	13	229	5.371901
21-Mar	14	84	14.285714
22-Mar	16	54	22.857143
23-Mar	17	135	11.184211
24-Mar	15	87	14.705882
25-Mar	37	401	8.447489
26-Mar	33	180	15.492958
27-Mar	67	211	24.100719
28-Mar	77	231	25.000000
29-Mar	15	31	32.608696
30-Mar	130	539	19.431988
31-Mar	88	414	17.529881
1-Apr	16	113	12.403101
2-Apr	170	364	31.835206
3-Apr	44	526	7.719298
4-Apr	127	446	22.164049
5-Apr	92	455	16.819013
6-Apr	69	276	20.000000
7-Apr	90	466	16.187050
8-Apr	47	135	25.824176
9-Apr	127	586	17.812062
10-Apr	98	462	17.500000
11-Apr	220	1987	9.968283
12-Apr	63	279	18.421053
13-Apr	81	352	18.706698
14-Apr	71	275	20.520231
15-Apr	99	316	23.855422
16-Apr	165	1467	10.110294
17-Apr	192	2332	7.606973
18-Apr	61	349	14.878049
19-Apr	52	312	14.285714
20-Apr	112	1418	7.320261
21-Apr	144	1970	6.811731
22-Apr	111	1373	7.479784
23-Apr	167	996	14.359415
24-Apr	65	456	12.476008
25-Apr	NA	NA	NA
26-Apr	NA	NA	NA
27-Apr	NA	NA	NA
28-Apr	NA	NA	NA
29-Apr	57	637	8.213256
30-Apr	74	1192	5.845182
1-May	39	886	4.216216
2-May	51	657	7.203390
3-May	172	2312	6.924316
4-May	82	2250	3.516295
5-May	100	1651	5.711022
6-May	86	1076	7.401033
7-May	35	1162	2.923977
8-May	171	1117	13.276397
9-May	78	897	8.000000
10-May	22	1052	2.048417
11-May	124	1198	9.379728
12-May	143	2322	5.801217
13-May	120	1418	7.802341
14-May	112	1174	8.709176
15-May	29	325	8.192090
16-May	109	1316	7.649123
17-May	113	1326	7.852676
18-May	57	1906	2.903719
19-May	67	4512	1.463202
20-May	189	3207	5.565371
21-May	100	1264	7.331378
22-May	80	1553	4.898959
23-May	45	884	4.843918
24-May	148	2866	4.910418
25-May	81	1347	5.672269
26-May	36	1000	3.474903
27-May	82	1352	5.718271
28-May	227	3455	6.165128
29-May	91	817	10.022026
30-May	150	1900	7.317073
31-May	143	2236	6.010929
1-Jun	77	780	8.984831
2-Jun	248	2096	10.580205
3-Jun	152	3341	4.351560
4-Jun	153	2955	4.922780
5-Jun	171	2240	7.092493
6-Jun	240	4530	5.031447
7-Jun	113	1553	6.782713
8-Jun	202	2670	7.033426
9-Jun	158	1481	9.640024
10-Jun	188	1594	10.549944
11-Jun	197	2147	8.404437
12-Jun	361	3135	10.326087
13-Jun	374	4183	8.207154
14-Jun	176	1808	8.870968
15-Jun	254	2417	9.509547
16-Jun	222	1733	11.355499
17-Jun	345	2212	13.492374
18-Jun	230	2757	7.700033
19-Jun	363	2236	13.966910
20-Jun	335	3100	9.752547
21-Jun	168	2589	6.093580
22-Jun	284	2378	10.668670
23-Jun	353	1543	18.618143
24-Jun	311	3028	9.314166
25-Jun	642	5359	10.698217
26-Jun	437	3649	10.695056
27-Jun	454	4899	8.481226
28-Jun	333	3085	9.742539
29-Jun	435	2582	14.418296
30-Jun	293	1767	14.223301
1-Jul	408	2840	12.561576
2- Jul	463	3311	12.268151
3-Jul	822	5324	13.374553
4-Jul	686	4258	13.875405

Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 500 in early April to roughly 3000 in mid-June. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 128 new additional tests each day in Palm Beach County. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

There was a general decrease in the number of new positive test results from early April until around May 11th. Afterwards, this trend flattened out and then increased. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 23 new additional positive cases each day, per day in Palm Beach County.

Proportion of Positive Cases within Past Two Weeks

During the 14-day period from 20 June to 04 July, there was a increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 cases reported in Palm Beach County. Over this period, there was an average increase of 0.2 percentage points per day for new positive cases.

Proportion of Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

Overall, the proportion of positive test results out of all tests decreased significantly from over 15% in April to the proportion of about 6% at the end of May. This is function of test availability and the population being tested. Overall, since the county reopened, the proportion of positive tests is now increasing over time. Over the past two weeks the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests has increased by approximately 0.2% each day.

COVID-19 Hospitalization Data

Full Data

Date	County	Hospitalized	ICU	Ventilated	AdmitPrevDay	DischPrevDay	DeltaAdmit
2020-04-02	PALM BEACH	150	78	38	NA	NA	NA
2020-04-03	PALM BEACH	171	69	60	31	12	19
2020-04-04	PALM BEACH	170	77	75	50	47	3
2020-04-05	PALM BEACH	180	83	73	49	15	34
2020-04-06	PALM BEACH	138	64	58	49	48	1
2020-04-07	PALM BEACH	199	84	63	64	39	25
2020-04-08	PALM BEACH	158	68	51	47	28	19
2020-04-09	PALM BEACH	212	86	66	93	39	54
2020-04-10	PALM BEACH	184	90	54	46	46	0
2020-04-10	PALM BEACH	200	99	55	48	40	8
2020-04-11	PALM BEACH	196	94	58	60	22	38
2020-04-12	PALM BEACH	229	103	60	36	25	11
2020-04-12	PALM BEACH	228	103	63	38	26	12
2020-04-13	PALM BEACH	239	90	54	64	38	26
2020-04-13	PALM BEACH	242	91	57	66	39	27
2020-04-14	PALM BEACH	241	89	56	65	44	21
2020-04-14	PALM BEACH	204	73	48	63	49	14
2020-04-15	PALM BEACH	223	85	51	74	38	36
2020-04-16	PALM BEACH	241	89	53	74	34	40
2020-04-16	PALM BEACH	250	92	54	72	38	34
2020-04-17	PALM BEACH	236	87	52	74	26	48
2020-04-17	PALM BEACH	239	88	54	60	33	27
2020-04-18	PALM BEACH	240	91	53	62	33	29
2020-04-18	PALM BEACH	237	89	54	61	33	28
2020-04-19	PALM BEACH	238	94	62	55	25	30
2020-04-20	PALM BEACH	245	91	56	46	25	21
2020-04-21	PALM BEACH	236	86	47	41	40	1
2020-04-22	PALM BEACH	232	88	52	46	35	11
2020-04-22	PALM BEACH	226	84	52	47	31	16
2020-04-23	PALM BEACH	232	85	50	42	34	8
2020-04-23	PALM BEACH	229	84	49	38	30	8
2020-04-24	PALM BEACH	223	73	50	40	32	8
2020-04-25	PALM BEACH	223	73	43	39	23	16
2020-04-25	PALM BEACH	221	71	43	38	25	13
2020-04-26	PALM BEACH	209	65	40	50	24	26
2020-04-26	PALM BEACH	213	68	41	45	18	27
2020-04-27	PALM BEACH	222	67	43	26	22	4
2020-04-27	PALM BEACH	223	69	44	25	22	3
2020-04-28	PALM BEACH	229	75	45	30	27	3
2020-04-28	PALM BEACH	230	75	40	29	25	4
2020-04-29	PALM BEACH	236	72	43	33	23	10
2020-04-29	PALM BEACH	232	73	44	31	22	9
2020-04-30	PALM BEACH	232	73	44	41	32	9
2020-04-30	PALM BEACH	234	74	43	45	36	9
2020-05-01	PALM BEACH	235	76	44	49	32	17
2020-05-01	PALM BEACH	236	77	44	43	32	11
2020-05-02	PALM BEACH	241	76	50	34	34	0
2020-05-03	PALM BEACH	246	72	47	35	18	17
2020-05-03	PALM BEACH	242	71	46	33	17	16
2020-05-04	PALM BEACH	228	71	52	34	39	-5
2020-05-04	PALM BEACH	228	71	52	34	39	-5
2020-05-05	PALM BEACH	230	75	47	48	33	15
2020-05-05	PALM BEACH	230	75	47	48	33	15
2020-05-06	PALM BEACH	233	67	39	45	34	11
2020-05-06	PALM BEACH	233	67	39	45	33	12
2020-05-07	PALM BEACH	237	69	41	45	28	17
2020-05-07	PALM BEACH	236	69	40	44	27	17
2020-05-08	PALM BEACH	224	65	40	36	46	-10
2020-05-09	PALM BEACH	224	66	43	31	32	-1
2020-05-09	PALM BEACH	224	66	43	31	32	-1
2020-05-10	PALM BEACH	226	69	41	41	32	9
2020-05-10	PALM BEACH	227	70	41	37	33	4
2020-05-11	PALM BEACH	218	64	38	41	28	13
2020-05-11	PALM BEACH	218	64	38	41	28	13
2020-05-12	PALM BEACH	222	67	50	41	29	12
2020-05-12	PALM BEACH	222	68	36	41	29	12
2020-05-13	PALM BEACH	216	64	37	47	35	12
2020-05-13	PALM BEACH	219	64	38	40	29	11
2020-05-14	PALM BEACH	242	75	37	48	36	12
2020-05-14	PALM BEACH	242	75	37	48	36	12
2020-05-15	PALM BEACH	236	71	37	39	30	9
2020-05-15	PALM BEACH	241	73	36	43	43	0
2020-05-16	PALM BEACH	250	70	38	48	34	14
2020-05-16	PALM BEACH	247	71	41	50	29	21
2020-05-18	PALM BEACH	251	66	33	34	25	9
2020-05-19	PALM BEACH	231	66	34	44	30	14
2020-05-23	PALM BEACH	235	55	35	38	43	-5
2020-05-26	PALM BEACH	246	66	36	36	25	11
2020-05-27	PALM BEACH	246	66	37	49	34	15
2020-05-28	PALM BEACH	234	55	34	46	62	-16
2020-05-29	PALM BEACH	238	63	35	34	37	-3
2020-05-31	PALM BEACH	241	68	40	28	26	2
2020-06-01	PALM BEACH	251	69	43	34	37	-3
2020-06-02	PALM BEACH	237	64	36	39	42	-3
2020-06-03	PALM BEACH	271	90	64	40	18	22
2020-06-04	PALM BEACH	254	78	41	45	33	12
2020-06-05	PALM BEACH	253	75	48	41	43	-2
2020-06-08	PALM BEACH	307	87	48	53	17	36
2020-06-10	PALM BEACH	293	84	55	40	41	-1
2020-06-11	PALM BEACH	275	84	52	49	42	7
2020-06-12	PALM BEACH	289	90	51	42	28	14
2020-06-12	PALM BEACH	287	88	50	42	25	17
2020-06-15	PALM BEACH	291	74	54	47	25	22
2020-06-16	PALM BEACH	303	78	44	68	45	23
2020-06-17	PALM BEACH	329	95	50	49	53	-4
2020-06-18	PALM BEACH	348	99	49	58	38	20
2020-06-19	PALM BEACH	369	90	49	58	36	22
2020-06-20	PALM BEACH	376	92	48	68	34	34
2020-06-22	PALM BEACH	371	77	46	51	35	16
2020-06-23	PALM BEACH	402	82	51	68	43	25
2020-06-24	PALM BEACH	394	84	69	57	59	-2
2020-06-25	PALM BEACH	384	76	46	70	50	20
2020-06-26	PALM BEACH	403	80	46	74	38	36
2020-06-27	PALM BEACH	420	77	45	94	57	37
2020-06-27	PALM BEACH	420	77	45	94	57	37
2020-06-30	PALM BEACH	493	118	56	95	57	38

Hospital COVID-19 Census Trajectory

We now show a census plot of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and those in ICU on ventilators (shown on a log scale) for Palm Beach County. Overall, in Palm Beach County, trends for hospitalization census, ICU census and ventilation census decreased from April to mid May before reversing. Subsequently, we see an increase in hospitalization census, ICU census, and ventilation census for Palm Beach County. The COVID-19 ICU census has decreased from its reported peak of 103 on April 12th to 55 on May 23rd; currently there are 118 COVID-19 patients in ICU. Overall, the number of COVID-19 patients on ventilators has decreased significantly from its highest point of 75 ventilated on April 4th to to 33 on May 18th; currently there are 56 COVID-19 patients in ICU who are on ventilators. However, the observed flat trend for hospitalization, ICU, and ventilated census have reversed over the past month and began to increase.

We also show the proportion of patients hospitalized who are in the ICU and the proportion of those in the ICU who are ventilated.

Overall, the percentage of COVID-19 hospitalized patients requiring intensive care has decreased from approximately 50% in early April to the current rate of approximately 20%. Over the past two weeks, this decreasing trend appears to have continued. Additionally, the percentage of patients in the ICU on ventilation has decreased from 80% in early April to the current percentage of approximately 60%. The initial decreasing trend from early April to mid May has reversed over the past three weeks and begun to increase slightly for Palm Beach County.

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Conclusion

During the past two weeks, the number of positive COVID-19 tests has increased by an average of 125, 74, and 23 each day for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, respectively. Additionally, there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests obtained within the past two weeks. Furthermore, hospitalization census, ICU census, and ventilation census for Miami-Dade County have all begun to increase over approximately the last three weeks. Taken together, this evidence points to increased community spread of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County and represents a significant concern for the area. For Broward County, the number of people in the hospital and in intensive care units have increased since the beginning of June; the number of people on ventilation has begun to increase as well. Finally, for Palm Beach County, hospitalization census, ICU census and ventilation census have all increased consistently since approximately mid May.

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Data Sources

Data sources are as follows:

• COVID-19 Test Results: The number of positive and negative COVID-19 test results come from the Florida Department of Health: https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/.
• COVID-19 Hospital Census: The hospitalization data is disseminated by Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration: https://ahca.myflorida.com/.